Monday, 1 September 2025

Strategic Sellout 2.0

PM Narendra Modi in his latest independence day address to the nation, had mentioned about the coming reform in the nuclear power generation sector. There is also some hint in the media, about a change in the civil liability law, in order to facilitate private sector investment in nuclear energy. Everyone in the country is also aware of the way the US government, under the new administration, has begun pressurizing India on economic and national security issues. This is perhaps the most direct public rebuke that Indian leadership has faced from a western government since our Independence. Anyone with even a little understanding of the history of India's relationship with the west is aware of the risk of defence and technological cooperation with the west. It was always said and every child in India knows that most of what comes from the US comes with strings attached.

Our leadership in the past has attempted to keep a healthy distance with the world powers knowing fully well their tendency to use leverage on us in ways which may be detrimental to our national interest. We have been since independence trying to negotiate our growth while breaking various shackles put on us and avoiding new ones being placed. However ever since the Civil nuclear deal between US and India, we have been building a close partnership with the US hoping that it would be mutually beneficial in economic and defence domains. There has always been skepticism in India among a few about too close a cooperation and analysts have always warned that there should be sufficient guard rails in place in our relationship. The gross display of coercion that is coming from Washington today has again given credence to such skepticism.

Given this context, this recent interview to The Print given by Dr Anil Kakodkar regarding India's Thorium based civil nuclear program is worth noting. The core of the discussion was around a special patented thorium based reactor fuel that has been developed by a US company "Clean Core Thorium Energy Inc". Interestingly Dr Kakodkar is an advisor to this company along with India's former NSA Mr M K Narayanan. This fuel is now being developed in cooperation with L&T for use in PHWR and CANDU reactors. The description of their profile on the company website is interesting. Mr Naraynan's contribution to the Indo US nuclear deal has been mentioned and the fuel has been specifically named ANEEL; recognizing the contribution of Dr Anil Kakodkar in its development. Incidentally India's L&T has an MOU with this company for the development of this fuel for "developing countries".

Clearly the primary customer in mind for the use of this fuel is India and we can see ominous signs here of India's three stage nuclear program and its energy security being made dependent on the US. The revolving door involving some primary actors behind the Indo-US nuclear deal also raises red flags. One wonders why Dr Kakodkar did not deem it fit to use his expertise to advise BARC where he was the director to develop such a fuel in India rather than promote a US patented fuel for India's thorium based nuclear program. This appears to be a critical technology. One cannot fathom that China would ever allow dependency on any foreign country on such critical areas. Even in high-end Chips it is now promoting local industry rather than becoming dependent on the west.

The transfer of this fuel technology from the US also requires the US government's so called 810 approval which entails a requirement to satisfy the US government's non proliferation concerns and national security interests. Quite likely dependence on this fuel will make India's nuclear program susceptible to US sanctions pressure in future. This is equivalent to attaching another shackle on ourselves. India's three stage nuclear program and fuel reprocessing has so far been kept out of any IAEA inspections under the Indo US nuclear deal. With this imported fuel from the US all this independence India had carved out for itself appears to be in jeopardy.

One needs to be reminded of the red flags that were raised in the book Strategic Sellout by Bharat Karnad, PK Iyengar et al immediately after the Indo US nuclear deal. Mr Ashok Parthasarathi had specifically mentioned in a press conference organized by him and Mr Santhanam circa 2009 that India had 11 years since the Pokhran test yet to deploy a Thermonuclear weapon. Several scientists had mentioned the need for India to resume nuclear testing in order to get a credible Hydrogen bomb deterrence against China since the yield of 1998 test is questionable. We seem to be walking into another trap with this talk of changes to nuclear liability laws and increasing dependency on the US for our civil nuclear program. GOI needs to tread this carefully and not mortgage India's energy future to a US company by using patented fuel for its reactors. It appears that people like Dr Kakodkar and Mr Narayanan who have been at the echelons of India's nuclear establishment are contributing to making the country's energy future vulnerable to a mercurial US government. There is also a conflict of interest that such persons who have served in senior positions in government of India are post retirement cooperating with a foreign company in such a critical area.  

A number of senior scientists who had raised red flags about the Indo-US nuclear deal and some of the primary actors who had contributed to the deal are no longer with us. I am sure a few like Mr Bharat Karnad and some others who may not be as well known publicly are still with us. At a minimum we should have a public debate about the future direction we need to take on our relationship with the West in nuclear technology and whether we should really risk creating dependence on the US and the West rather than pursue self-reliance like China.

Wednesday, 27 August 2025

India's Thorium nuclear program under threat?

Dr Anil Kakodkar has recently been interviewed by The Print on the patented ANEEL thorium fuel developed by US company "Clean Core Thorium Energy Inc" in which Dr Kakodkar is an advisor along with former NSA M K Naraynan. This fuel has been specifically designed for use in PHWR and CANDU reactors. The description of their profile on the company website is interesting. Mr Naraynan's contribution to the Indo US nuclear deal has been mentioned and the fuel has been specifically named ANEEL recognizing the contribution of Dr Anil Kakodkar in its development. Incidentally India's L&T has an MOU with this company for the development of this fuel for "developing countries".

Clearly the primary customer in mind for the use of this fuel is India and we can see ominous signs here of India's three stage nuclear program and its energy security being made dependent on the US. The revolving door involving some primary actors behind the Indo US nuclear deal also raises red flags. One wonders why Dr Kakodkar did not deem it fit to use his expertise to advise BARC where he was the Director to develop such a fuel in India rather than promote a US patented fuel for India's Thorium based nuclear program. The transfer of this fuel technology also requires the US government's so called 810 approval which entails a requirement to satisfy US government's non proliferation concerns and national security interests. Quite likely this will make India's nuclear program susceptible to US sanctions pressure. Readers should note that India's three stage nuclear program and fuel reprocessing has so far been kept out of any IAEA inspections under the Indo US nuclear deal. With this imported fuel from US all this appears to be in jeopardy.

The Strategic Sellout which Bharat Karnad, PK Iyengar and K Santhanam had warned off, seems to be paying dividends for a few. Given that PM Modi had specifically mentioned plans for reforms in nuclear energy sector in the country during his recent independence day speech and some talk in media about change in India's nuclear liability laws, GOI needs to tread this carefully and not mortgage India's energy future to a US company by using patented fuel for its reactors. It is disappointing that people like Dr Kakodkar and Mr Narayanan who have been at the echelons of India's nuclear establishment are contributing to making the country's energy future vulnerable to a mercurial US government.

Saturday, 9 August 2025

On Trade Deal with USA

It is only India which painstakingly worked on an FTA with USA, a draft of which, is already on Trump's table. No other country has any written deal let alone a full blown FTA. India already conceded on zero tariff on capital goods import and open market for agriculture in certain areas like meat, fruits and even milk products like cheese(what happened to blood meal?) and defence purchases. India got a bad deal because it started off with appeasement. India removed Google tax, alcohol duties, Harleys, Tesla and Starlink even before Modi went to US and even before trade deal. So all this was a tribute that India paid to Trump. Trump's trade minister had already conceded that India will not open agriculture and has bluntly said in mafia like tone that India buying russian weapons gets under the skin of USA. So agriculture is a red herring that leaders on both sides are waving at gullible citizens.


Having got the deal he wanted, Trump decided to push India more and hence raised issue of Russian oil to settle non trade related issues like Ukraine deal and who knows what else behind the scenes. Trump team is gloating that no country except China has retaliated. Trump team is not expecting any retaliation from India because it understands that decision makers' will to respond is already compromised. It is a result of not building guard rails over the years in US relationship.

China is indeed gloating and its media is egging on India to stand up to USA. A hard break in US India relations is to its advantage. One is skeptical if there will be any real response or weather India has any cards left. WTO afterall is dead now, Lula wanting collective action by WTO does not work. The only thing India should definitely do now is not sign any FTA with USA and work on diversifying trade with other countries. Hopefully India will also stop further defense purchases from USA. After all no one else has signed any FTA with USA since trump tariffs everyone had only a framework agreement, details of which they are incessantly disputing. So Trupm has got no deal with anyone till now. A US China grand bargain looks inevitable though since only China cose to standup to USA. All cards are now with China.

India should wait for internal court proceedings in USA to strike down Trump tariffs as they definitely will and wait for political turmoil in USA to start, once tariff lead inflation begins to pinch. It needs to scale back its ties with USA especially defence. It is the security dependence on US which makes USA's allies vulnerable to pressure on trade. Hopefully Indian decision makes have that much independence still left to ride it out rather than strike a bad deal. Their dream of becoming China plus has been already been shattered by Trump.